29 comment  view:29   blogger:0 view

  1. Mark's Tech

    call me stereotypical… but… for some weird reason, I don't trust cars that are build in china. not because of 'spyware' or some BS, but because of reliability issues. idk. I may be wrong.

  2. Dave Lucina

    China's big middle finger to other US car manufacturers and the oil industry. If US news attacks TSLA, China welcomes TSLA and Elon Musk with open arms and access to their big wallet.

  3. Roy Englander

    And when will SpaceX Begin building Starships in China?

  4. Ros

    Pretty sure we will see a Chinese Tesla copy in two or three years after they have the time to steal and reverse engineer teslas electric engines and batteries .

  5. K T

    Do you know that battery capacity diminished greatly at cold weather. Also, wait until you need to fix the car due to accident, you would wish that you dont have the car.

  6. D Luchin

    Bloomberg is reporting Shanghai is already at 1000 per week

  7. Gobl R.

    battery is the bottleneck so far for Giga 3!

  8. Norml B

    Only white or black cars on the lot. Those Chinese seem to be really afraid of standing out.

  9. AlexeyTubeVideos

    There were over 1000 Cars in that video next to the GF3. And there are probably 2x already delivered to the showrooms around China

  10. Lérida y Gerona

    And Elon looks Chinese

  11. Pigoso

    I hate everything made in China

  12. James Allen

    I think your delivery numbers are very low. Is first phase guidance what they'll produce in a year? Or what they would produce in a year if their production stayed at first phase capacity levels. Tesla's aim was 4k model 3 a week I thought? And we r already hearing that current production is 1k+ a week. This is meant to be a 500k cars a year factory. I have to assume they will ramp far faster to meet this goal. Otherwise it woudn't reach this until 2022 given your estimates.

  13. Bruce Burnworth

    Looks like the 15 cars were only ceremonial. “Wang also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units a week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been "very good."”

  14. Alexis de Wouters

    Well it's not really surprising, China's manufacturing is well known and efficient, lot's of products are made in China. What surprises me more is that the Chinese government seems to do more in favor of an American brand than the American government itself. Considering the economic "war" between the two countries, it's very disturbing. When is Tesla becoming a Chinese brand ?

  15. Mark Tu

    Building such a factory in 11 months and starting production is amazing! Trump needs to work much harder to attract manufacturing to USA.

  16. Fleisch Berg

    So china basically has a worldwide street view app now.

  17. The Real Cigar Jefe

    This move has secured Elon’s dominance in the automotive world.

  18. Burninmyleather

    Still don’t know much about you tho

  19. Burninmyleather

    This channel have been the best PR/Marketing got Tesla. As a next up techie but inspired

  20. Sonny Moon

    As always thank you so much Gali !

  21. Paul Cooper

    It IS awesome and impressive to see China construction speed – but man that sky from the drone is terrible and sad to look at. I wonder how much that impacts on solar power? Are they still planning on putting them on the Shaghai gigafactory? I was in Shanghai in 2010 and the sky was still blue(ish).

  22. Steve Bollmeyer

    "Wang also told reporters the plant had achieved a production target of 1,000 units a week, or around 280 cars a day, and that sales for the China-made sedan had so far been “very good”." Link below:

  23. frammis

    In order to ramp production to big numbers in China, they will have to have the Chinese battery plant up and running at scale. Otherwise they will be cannibalizing the supply of the Reno Gigafactory 1 and sending Panasonic cell-based battery packs overseas. How soon do you think their Chinese battery facility will be up and running?

  24. jawbreaker

    I cannot wait for the GF4 in EU!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. Iconoclasticnation

    I’m hopeful that the workers in this factory will be the best paid and looked after workers in China. Edit: my concern is the level of industrial espionage and IP theft will be through the roof I think that’s a given that half his Chinese workforce will be PLA and Beijing Ministry of State Security agents. His company is going to be leaking industrial secrets and tech designs like a sieve.

  26. Quantorful

    Your production numbers and associated revenue seem quite conservative to me.

    There were rumours a few weeks ago that they were already up to nearly 1000/week, though more likely a few hundred, so at this point it very well could be nearly 1000; the overflowing parking lot combined with the reported consistent departures of vehicle freight trucks lend credence to that. I also remember reading, though I can't recall where, that Tesla is aiming or on track to reach Phase 1 production capacity by some time in Q2. Considering that 150k/year is only about 2900/week, and the pace at which everything has been progressing there, that actually seems quite reasonable. If so, that would correspond to a rate of 37.5k/quarter, so we could expect Q2 production of perhaps 25k since it wouldn't get the full rate for the whole quarter.

    The battery, motor, and seat production building currently under construction is for Phase 2, and according to Jason Yang (for those not in the know,, he does the drone flyovers of Giga3 every week, check his youtube channel) it's apparently on track to be done around the end of March. There was corroborating evidence for this from a China Global Times piece on Oct 14:
    "The battery factory will be built more quickly than the Phase-1 area, as it took only a few weeks for workers to erect pillars and roof trusses for Phase-2, while erecting roof trusses in the Phase-1 area took months, according to media reports."

    Construction was started in September and the building is much smaller than phase 1, so if it took less than 10 months to go from mud field to trial production for full vehicles for phase 1, then I think it's very reasonable to expect 6 months for phase 2, even considering potentially greater complexities involved in battery and motor production (seats are minor in comparison).

    As you well know, the phase 2 planned annual capacity is 250k/year. How long they take to ramp that is harder to say, but it's important to note that Musk has specifically stated that the main bottle neck for Fremont Model 3 production had been batteries from Giga1, so the same will likely be true here. It's possible that by the end of 2020 they could have an annualized production rate of 200k/year or more.

    Given all of that, I think a more middle of the road production estimate could be more like this:
    Q1 – 12.5k
    Q2 – 25k
    Q3 – 37.5k
    Q4 – 45k
    Total for 2020: 120k

    At an ASP of USD$45k, that would be:
    Q1 – USD$0.5625 Billion
    Q2 – USD$1.125 Billion
    Q3 – USD$
    1.6875 Billion
    Q4 – USD$2.025 Billion
    Total for 2020: USD$5.4 Billion

    If we want to be more optimistic, maybe they reach phase 1 capacity a bit earlier and ramp phase 2 faster, leading to total year production of 150k, and revenue of roughly USD$6.75 Billion. They might not manage that, but I think it's very likely that they'll exceed your back of the napkin estimate of 80k for the full year.

    Edit: I suppose the Q4 earning call should give us clarity. There should be lots of good info about the progress of the ramp up and phase 2 construction to help refine those estimates. Then when you do an update, you should compare your estimates then to what you estimated now.

    Edit 2: grammar and spelling corrections

  27. val s.

    All of this is a great news for Tesla & the whole EV market !

  28. Pete Miller

    China is using Tesla as it's tip of the spear for an economic war with the US and the fossil fuel industry. China with it's science and engineering background politicians can see the value of Teslas' ev and battery development, allowing the Chinese government to support and in a sense shield Tesla from the threats it faces in the US. Might sound a bit conspiratorial, but with all of the FUD funded by the fossil fuel industry and Legacy auto manufacturers, it would not surprise me. Cheers.

  29. lasereyes555

    Hope Tesla technologies doesn't get stolen by the chinese government. Turn it around as their competitor, then out performs Tesla. And, finally buy them out with their own technologies. It's ashame many western companies had fallen for that trap. Good luck Tesla.

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